Strategy or Instability?
Trump’s instinctive style is being tested by the unpredictability of war
Yesterday The Wall Street Journal published a lengthy article on Donald Trump and the Iran war. For the past seven weeks, the world has tried to grapple with a moving rationale for the conflict and the strategy used to wage it. The WSJ’s reporting leaves me wondering if Trump’s management of the war is even less focused than I had thought.
Unpredictability can be an asset in matters of foreign policy. But as a strategy to create change or achieve a desired outcome, it requires a clear objective and a disciplined plan. Without that foundation, erratic and unpredictable behavior can look and feel unsettling. What is meant to create leverage can instead create confusion—for allies, markets, and the public trying to understand where this is going.
This reporting from The Wall Street Journal leaves me more concerned that Donald Trump’s instinct to improvise has not strengthened the U.S. position, but weakened it—leaving the country more isolated, and more exposed to risk, than at any point since the conflict began.
Key excerpts from The Wall Street Journal article Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears:
“A president who thrives on drama is bringing an even more intense version of his unorthodox, maximalist approach to a new situation—fighting a war. He is veering between belligerent and conciliatory approaches and grappling behind the scenes with just how badly things could go wrong.”
“Aides kept the president out of the room as they got minute-by-minute updates because they believed his impatience wouldn’t be helpful, instead updating him at meaningful moments, a senior administration official said.”
“Still, he has made risky pronouncements without input from his national security team—including his post about plans to destroy the Iranian civilization—saying seeming unstable could help spur the Iranians to negotiate.”